A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
